What 50 years of data across 20 countries says. Plus, our next webinar

Hi Reader,

The stock market is not taking a summer break this year. Recently, we've seen interest rates rise and that has led to several questions about the federal deficit, its impact on the stock market, and whether it warrants any changes to your investment plan.

Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) has studied this question across roughly 20 countries and nearly 50 years of data. Their finding: when you plot a country's stock returns against its debt-to-GDP ratio, there is no strong correlation.

A few examples from their research:

• U.S. debt-to-GDP went from about 64% at the start of 2008 to over 120% in 2025. The S&P 500's annualized return over that stretch was roughly 10.7%.
• Italy and Belgium have each carried debt above 100% of GDP in more than 30 of the past 48 years. Their stock markets averaged 10.8% and 12.0% per year, respectively.
• Japan has been above 200% since 2010, and its market still averaged close to 6% annually over that period.

Rising interest rates can impact your retirement plan, of course. Higher rates may make paying off debt more advantageous, may impact the value of your bonds in the short term, and perhaps make tax increases more likely. None of this means, however, that you should be making dramatic changes to your financial plan.

The environment today is exactly why we build portfolios the way we do. A diversified portfolio owns thousands of companies across the U.S. and abroad, and thousands more bonds and cash alternatives to cover upcoming retirement withdrawals. Your spending plan has guardrails, so a rough stretch in the market doesn't force a dramatic change.

Diversification isn't done because of a prediction about what happens next - it is the reason you don't need to make a prediction.

There may be consequences to a rising federal deficit, but changing your investment strategy should not be one of them.

Our newsletter this month discusses a new study from Fidelity about rising health care costs for retirees, a recent news article we were quoted in about the $5 trillion in target date funds, and introduces our next webinar.

Read more below, and as always, if the topics in this newsletter prompt any questions or concerns, simply hit reply to this email and we will be in touch!

Regards,

The Arnold & Mote Team

September Webinar: How Index Funds Handle the Mega-IPO Wave

If a new trillion-dollar company has its IPO on a Tuesday. By Friday, how much of it is in your index fund?

Several clients asked us exactly that after the recent SpaceX IPO. Now, with several more trillion-dollar listings potentially ahead, it's worth a look at how index funds handle these new companies.

The answer depends on which index your fund tracks, and can vary widely across funds from Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity, and others. In the spring of 2026 four of the five major index providers rewrote their rules to handle these new, trillion dollar IPOs. Even if you knew how IPOs were handled before, the rules have changed.

In this month's webinar, we'll walk through what today's environment means for the funds you actually own, and what happens to your portfolio the next time a giant lists.

We'll cover:

• Why a S&P 500 index fund may hold none of a company your total stock market index fund added within a week of its IPO
• Other rules that matter: why a $2 trillion company has a smaller share in your index fund than a $200 billion one
• What happens when the next giant goes public
• When to worry about new companies becoming too large of a position in your portfolio

Join us for the live broadcast at noon Central Time on Friday, September 18th, streamed on our YouTube channel here:

Want a reminder before we go live? Click the button above and subscribe to our channel to be notified as the webinar begins.

If you can't attend live, a replay of the webinar will be accessible immediately after and available alongside recordings of all previous webinars on our YouTube channel.

Have a question you'd like us to address during the webinar? Just reply and let us know.

Miss last month's webinar? You can view a replay of "0% Capital Gains Tax Bracket: Why 0% Isn't Always Free" Here​

From the Arnold & Mote Blog - Health Care in Retirement

​

Fidelity recently released its 25th annual Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate. The new study now estimates that the average 65-year-old retiree will spend $185,500 on health care and medical expenses throughout retirement - that's $371,000 for a married couple.

Planning around future health care expenses in retirement is an important part of building your financial plan. Whether you are still working, just about to retire, or well into retirement, there are numerous opportunities to optimize your plan around health care.

Still working? Consider maximizing your HSA contributions, and building up your retirement savings to prepare for this level of expenses.

About to retire? Make sure you're well educated on your Medicare options to protect yourself from variable health care costs in retirement.

Well into retirement? How you choose to pay for these expenses can result in tens of thousands of dollars in tax costs. How to use your HSA in your withdrawal plan in times of added expenses is as important as ever.

Arnold & Mote Featured in the Press

MarketWatch: The Biggest Issue Lurking Behind Your Target Date Fund​

Target date funds are now the default investing option for the majority of 401(k) plans, and hold nearly $5 trillion in retirement funds today. While target date funds can be a great option for many, not all target date funds are the same. Some may be much higher cost, some will contain investments in annuities, and some may provide overly conservative asset allocations later in retirement.

We were interviewed for this article in MarketWatch to discuss the good aspects of target date funds, along with where they may fall short. Our responses focused on diversification and costs.

See our other recent press mentions on our Press Page.

Looking for Something From a Prior Newsletter?

As a reminder, you can now find the last 12 months of our newsletters here:

Whether you're new and want to browse issues you missed, or you're following up on a topic from a few months ago, you'll find everything at the link above. We'll also keep this link at the bottom of all future newsletters.

Quinn and the Arnold & Mote Wealth Management Team

(319) 393-4020

​Send us a message​

​Contact Us | Blog | arnoldmotewealthmanagement.com​

​Facebook | LinkedIn | YouTube​

You are receiving this newsletter because we've talked with you in the past about financial planning and wealth management. Privacy Policy​

The information herein was obtained from various sources. Arnold & Mote Wealth Management does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. The information given is as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. Arnold & Mote Wealth Management assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it. This is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.